Technology Predictions for 2008
January 2008 (More monthly articles)
Another year has been filed in the annals of history and a new one has taken its place. The political pundits are out in force making their predictions for who will run the country. The psychics have made their predictions for what will happen this year. At least one major religious leader has entered the fray with some wild predictions of his own.
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Having never made predictions before, and seeing how the so-called experts are often wrong, dare I give it a try? That is precisely what I intend to do in this newsletter, and let the chips fall where they may. In all honesty, these technology predictions are not entirely my own, but rather others have made them. I just happen to agree with them.
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Here they are:
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| 1. | Cellular providers will start to offer cell-phone Internet plans with Voice Over IP, or VOIP. With a VOIP cellular phone, the device could theoretically be connected to any VOIP network, including the office phone system. In this environment, when the phone is within range of the office network, the call would be routed through the company PBX, avoiding the use of cell plan minutes. When the phone goes out of range and a call is received, it would be carried by the cellular network. Thus, the office phone could be replaced with the mobile VOIP cell phone, making for a truly mobile experience. Think of the possibilities. A senior staff member could be on the road, receive a call, forward it to another office extension, or even conference a colleague on it. In theory, the person could place calls that originate from the office network, even while out of the office. Thus when the recipient sees the call coming in and has caller id, the number displays as originating from the office. The first provider to cave under the consumer pressure will be Sprint. If you are in the market for a new PBX, be sure to seriously consider purchasing one that is VOIP ready. Have a serious conversation with the vendor’s technical people to make sure their system would handle calls from a Sprint or other carrier’s VOIP cell phone.
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| 2. | The market share for Windows Vista will cross the 10% threshold. Once that happens, businesses that have insisted on purchasing new workstations and laptops with the old Windows XP operating system will have a more difficult time making the case to remain on the older platform. If your organization has avoided Vista, now is the time to begin testing it.
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| 3. | We will see increased security threats to computer networks. Nothing new here.
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| 4. | Social networking sites, such as FaceBook will begin to make an impact in the business realm. One worth noting is called LinkedIn (http://www.linkedin.com). This site allows you to create a profile and link it to colleagues at previous jobs, colleges, professional associations, and other groups you might define. It’s great for helping you find a job, reconnect with a colleague, get a question answered, hire an employee, or even find a recommended vendor or consultant. Tools like this could be a great way to link your members together or bring you in contact with new donors.
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| 5. | Software as a Service (SAAS) will begin to make serious inroads into business. For now, think of SAAS as a desktop application, like Microsoft Office. Instead of having to purchase the software and install it on a workstation computer, a business would subscribe to a web-based service that provides access to a suite of applications which provide similar functionality. One of the most promising SAAS services currently is a company known as Zoho (http://www.zoho.com). In its online office suite, Zoho provides a Word processor, spreadsheet, calendar, presentation, online meeting, instant messenger, and more. I’ve personally tried it out and have to admit that it was very impressive, especially given that Zoho is currently free.
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| 6. | We will see cell phones begin to transform from talking devices to pocket computers. Currently, you purchase a cell phone from a carrier in order to use the phone on that carrier’s network. As a result, the applications that can be run on the device tend to be rather proprietary to that network. For instance, browsing the Internet on a Verizon phone provides the user a different experience than performing the same task on an AT&T phone. In this model, the phone is locked by the cell phone provider. We will begin to see the model change whereby phones will be unlocked and available from third parties, such as Best Buy or CDW, for example. The unlocking of the phones will bring about a standardization of operating systems, software applications, and user experiences. Such standardization will eventually (though probably not in 2008) include GPS, the Internet, Software As A Service (see previous prediction), and more.
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| 7. | Smart phones will become smart enough to replace the laptop. Such devices will include a user-friendly keyboard, the Windows operating system to run office applications, a WiFi connection to the Internet, and ports for connecting to peripheral devices such as monitors, keyboards, and video projectors. A couple of products to watch include one called OQO (http://www.oqo.com) and another called i-mate (http://www.imate.com). Both of these devices look very promising.
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| There you have them – my predictions for 2008. Only time will tell whether they prove accurate. |
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